Tourism Demand Prediction after COVID-19 with Deep Learning Hybrid CNN–LSTM—Case Study of Vietnam and Provinces

The tourism industry experienced a positive increase after COVID-19 and is the largest segment in the foreign exchange contribution in developing countries, especially in Vietnam, where China has begun reopening its borders and lifted the pandemic limitation on foreign travel. This research proposes a hybrid algorithm, combined convolution neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM), to accurately predict the tourism demand in Vietnam and some provinces. The number of new COVID-19 cases worldwide and in Vietnam is considered a promising feature in predicting algorithms, which is novel in this research. The Pearson matrix, which evaluates the correlation between selected features and target variables, is computed to select the most appropriate input parameters. The architecture of the hybrid CNN–LSTM is optimized by utilizing hyperparameter fine-tuning, which improves the prediction accuracy and efficiency of the proposed algorithm. Moreover, the proposed CNN–LSTM outperformed other traditional approaches, including the backpropagation neural network (BPNN), CNN, recurrent neural network (RNN), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and LSTM algorithms, by deploying the K-fold cross-validation methodology. The developed algorithm could be utilized as the baseline strategy for resource planning, which could efficiently maximize and deeply utilize the available resource in Vietnam.

Large-scale single-cell analysis reveals critical immune characteristics of COVID-19 patients (preprint)

Dysfunctional immune response in the COVID-19 patients is a recurrent theme impacting symptoms and mortality, yet the detailed understanding of pertinent immune cells is not complete. We applied single-cell RNA sequencing to 284 samples from 205 COVID-19 patients and controls to create a comprehensive immune landscape. Lymphopenia and active T and B cell responses were found to coexist and associated with age, sex and their interactions with COVID-19. Diverse epithelial and immune cell types were observed to be virus-positive and showed dramatic transcriptomic changes. Elevation of ANXA1 and S100A9 in virus-positive squamous epithelial cells may enable the initiation of neutrophil and macrophage responses via the ANXA1-FPR1 and S100A8/9-TLR4 axes. Systemic up-regulation of S100A8/A9, mainly by megakaryocytes and monocytes in the peripheral blood, may contribute to the cytokine storms frequently observed in severe patients. Our data provide a rich resource for understanding the pathogenesis and designing effective therapeutic strategies for COVID-19.

Modeling the Opening SARS-CoV-2 Spike: an Investigation of its Dynamic Electro-Geometric Properties (preprint)

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has brought about a surge of crowd-sourced initiatives aimed at simulating the proteins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. A bottleneck currently exists in translating these simulations into tangible predictions that can be leveraged for pharmacological studies. Here we report on extensive electrostatic calculations done on an exascale simulation of the opening of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, performed by the Folding@home initiative. We compute the electric potential as the solution of the non-linear Poisson-Boltzmann equation using a parallel sharp numerical solver. The inherent multiple length scales present in the geometry and solution are reproduced using highly adaptive Octree grids. We analyze our results focusing on the electro-geometric properties of the receptor-binding domain and its vicinity. This work paves the way for a new class of hybrid computational and data-enabled approaches, where molecular dynamics simulations are combined with continuum modeling to produce high-fidelity computational measurements serving as a basis for protein bio-mechanism investigations.

Characterization of Microbial Co-infections in the Respiratory Tract of hospitalized COVID-19 patients (preprint)

Summary Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a global pandemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, microbial composition of the respiratory tract and other infected tissues, as well as their possible pathogenic contributions to varying degrees of disease severity in COVID-19 patients remain unclear. Method Between January 27 and February 26, 2020, serial clinical specimens (sputum, nasal and throat swab, anal swab and feces) were collected from a cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients, including 8 mildly and 15 severely ill patients (requiring ICU admission and mechanical ventilation), in the Guangdong province, China. Total RNA was extracted and ultra-deep metatranscriptomic sequencing was performed in combination with laboratory diagnostic assays. Co-infection rates, the prevalence and abundance of microbial communities in these COVID-19 patients were determined. Findings Notably, respiratory microbial co-infections were exclusively found in 84.6% of severely ill patients (11/13), among which viral and bacterial co-infections were detected by sequencing in 30.8% (4/13) and 69.2% (9/13) of the patients, respectively. In addition, for 23.1% (3/13) of the patients, bacterial co-infections with Burkholderia cepacia complex (BCC) and Staphylococcus epidermidis were also confirmed by bacterial culture. Further, a time-dependent, secondary infection of B. cenocepacia with expressions of multiple virulence genes in one severely ill patient was demonstrated, which might be the primary cause of his disease deterioration and death one month after ICU admission. Interpretation Our findings identified distinct patterns of co-infections with SARS-CoV-2 and various respiratory pathogenic microbes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in relation to disease severity. Detection and tracking of BCC-associated nosocomial infections are recommended to improve the pre-emptive treatment regimen and reduce fatal outcomes of hospitalized patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. Funding National Science and Technology Major Project of China, National Major Project for Control and Prevention of Infectious Disease in China, the emergency grants for prevention and control of SARS-CoV-2 of Ministry of Science and Technology and Guangdong province, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Genome Read and Write, Guangdong Provincial Academician Workstation of BGI Synthetic Genomics, and Shenzhen Engineering Laboratory for Innovative Molecular Diagnostics.

Comorbidity and its impact on 1,590 patients with COVID-19 in China: A Nationwide Analysis (preprint)

Objective: To evaluate the spectrum of comorbidities and its impact on the clinical outcome in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Design: Retrospective case studies Setting: 575 hospitals in 31 province/autonomous regions/provincial municipalities across China Participants: 1,590 laboratory-confirmed hospitalized patients. Data were collected from November 21st, 2019 to January 31st, 2020. Main outcomes and measures: Epidemiological and clinical variables (in particular, comorbidities) were extracted from medical charts. The disease severity was categorized based on the American Thoracic Society guidelines for community-acquired pneumonia. The primary endpoint was the composite endpoints, which consisted of the admission to intensive care unit (ICU), or invasive ventilation, or death. The risk of reaching to the composite endpoints was compared among patients with COVID-19 according to the presence and number of comorbidities. Results: Of the 1,590 cases, the mean age was 48.9 years. 686 patients (42.7%) were females. 647 (40.7%) patients were managed inside Hubei province, and 1,334 (83.9%) patients had a contact history of Wuhan city. Severe cases accounted for 16.0% of the study population. 131 (8.2%) patients reached to the composite endpoints. 399 (25.1%) reported having at least one comorbidity. 269 (16.9%), 59 (3.7%), 30 (1.9%), 130 (8.2%), 28 (1.8%), 24 (1.5%), 21 (1.3%), 18 (1.1%) and 3 (0.2%) patients reported having hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes, hepatitis B infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney diseases, malignancy and immunodeficiency, respectively. 130 (8.2%) patients reported having two or more comorbidities. Patients with two or more comorbidities had significantly escalated risks of reaching to the composite endpoint compared with those who had a single comorbidity, and even more so as compared with those without (all P<0.05). After adjusting for age and smoking status, patients with COPD (HR 2.681, 95%CI 1.424-5.048), diabetes (HR 1.59, 95%CI 1.03-2.45), hypertension (HR 1.58, 95%CI 1.07-2.32) and malignancy (HR 3.50, 95%CI 1.60-7.64) were more likely to reach to the composite endpoints than those without. As compared with patients without comorbidity, the HR (95%CI) was 1.79 (95%CI 1.16-2.77) among patients with at least one comorbidity and 2.59 (95%CI 1.61-4.17) among patients with two or more comorbidities. Conclusion: Comorbidities are present in around one fourth of patients with COVID-19 in China, and predispose to poorer clinical outcomes.